GMP vs Listing Gain: How Accurate Is the Grey Market?
Across 160 listed IPOs from 21 July 2026 to 23 October 2026, the final grey market premium called the direction of the listing day right in 69.4% of cases; 50% listed within 5 percentage points of their final GMP, and the average gap was 8.7 points. The average listing gain was 17.1%.
Final GMP and listing gain
Questions
How accurate is IPO GMP?
The summary at the top shows how often the final GMP pointed the right way and how far the listing gain landed from it, worked out over every listed IPO that had a GMP. GMP is a guide, not a forecast you can rely on.
Why does the listing gain differ from the GMP?
GMP is quoted in an unofficial market by a small number of dealers, and the premium often moves in the last days before listing. Market mood on listing day, the subscription level and the share’s demand all decide the opening price.
Which price is the listing price?
The opening price on the NSE (or BSE) on listing day. The listing gain is that price minus the issue price, as a percentage of the issue price.
More IPO lists
